Fantasy Football: Analyzing the Downside for Each Relevant Rookie Running Back
Joe Williams, San Francisco 49ers
Downside: Vague role
Kyle Shanahan got his guy.
As Peter King reported in his Monday Morning Quarterback column, the 49ers' new head coach, just prior to drafting running back Joe Williams, said, "I’m telling you right now: If we don’t get him, I’ll be sick. I will be contemplating Joe Williams all night.”
So they drafted him. They got Joe Williams.
At face value, the pick seems to be irrelevant from a fantasy perspective. San Francisco already has Carlos Hyde, and with bummy offensive skill players, there won't be a ton of scoring opportunity this season.
That's not wrong. But to play devil's advocate, this regime didn't draft Carlos Hyde, Shanahan has helped later-round running backs flourish in the past, and Shanny's also historically created two-headed monsters in his backfields.
To the first point, Shanahan was the offensive coordinator when Steve Slaton (third-rounder in 2008) rushed for over 1,200 yards as a rookie for Houston, he helped create the Alfred Morris monster in Washington when coordinating the Redskins, and he was the Falcons' offensive coordinator when Devonta Freeman broke out. His dad was known, too, for making no-name rookie running backs (Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson) into names.
The younger Shanahan isn't afraid to split his backfield touches up, either. Or, at least, that's what he's shown over his last three years coordinating offenses.
| Year | Running Back | Market Share | Attempts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Terrance West | 35.85% | 171 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 31.03% | 148 | |
| 2015 | Devonta Freeman | 63.10% | 265 |
| Tevin Coleman | 20.71% | 87 | |
| 2016 | Devonta Freeman | 53.92% | 227 |
| Tevin Coleman | 28.03% | 118 |
Keep in mind, Tevin Coleman's numbers would've been much stronger had he not missed four games in 2015 and three more games in 2016.
Will Joe Williams be incredibly fantasy relevant in 2017? It's doubtful. The situation isn't great, and the downside, as noted, is that we have no idea what his usage could look like. Is his long-term outlook looking nice? Yes, sir.
