2017 NFL Power Rankings: Preseason Edition
16. Buffalo Bills, 0.45 nERD
The Buffalo Bills finished 7-9 (third in the AFC East) despite a positive point differential (+21). By nERD, that was a fair finish, as they posted a score of 0.06 (19th in the NFL).
Maintaining a top-two rushing offense by Adjusted Rushing NEP per play for the second straight season is a good start, but pairing that with a passing attack that ranked 19th and a defense that was 20th across the board isn't enough.
That's particularly true against the fourth-toughest schedule in the league. The Bills don't have any glaring issues (at least when compared to the bottom-half teams in the NFL), but without any significant improvements, our numbers view them as a league-average team in 2017.
With 6.5 wins at -130 in sportsbooks, it's not inconceivable that they get to 7-9 again.