2017 NFL Power Rankings: Preseason Edition

16. Houston Texans, 0.45 nERD

Also tied for 16th are the Houston Texans, who will be turning to Tom Savage or Deshaun Watson at quarterback to improve upon their 31st-place rank in Adjusted Passing NEP per play from 2016.

Houston, in part because of offensive line injuries, also ranked just 25th in rushing efficiency (31st in overall offensive efficiency, by our metrics), and that was too much for their stellar defense to overcome. Sure, they won the AFC South at 9-7, but they were outscored by 49 points, third in the division.

The defense, without J.J. Watt from Week 4 on last year, still managed to finish fourth in Adjusted Defensive NEP per play in 2016. They've had a top-six defense in five of the past six seasons by NEP and were one of three teams last year to have a top-seven passing and rushing defense. They will have to adjust without A.J. Bouye, but they overcame a bigger absence last year.

The Texans' offense hasn't been better than 24th by our metrics since 2012, and how that side of the ball fares will again dictate Houston's fate in 2017.