2017 NFL Power Rankings: Preseason Edition
22. Indianapolis Colts, -0.15 nERD
Since Andrew Luck joined the Indianapolis Colts in 2012, they've had a top-15 offense each season aside from his injury-plagued 2015, but it's fair to mention that his 48.81% Success Rate in 2016 was a career high and that it still ranked just 15th among 34 passers with at least 200 drop backs.
It's not that we need to pile onto Luck, whose offensive line has never done him any favors, but more that it's crucial to realize the imbalance between perception and reality for the Colts. Even last year, they were a below-average team (-1.41 nERD, 21st in the NFL) despite a top-10 overall offense (12th in passing and 11th in rushing).
Since 2012, the Indy defense has ranked 27th, 23rd, 16th, 19th, and 29th by our metrics. Just once did they post a passing or rushing mark inside the top 16 (their pass defense in 2014 ranked 13th). That means they'e never done anything particularly well on the defensive side of the ball since drafting Luck.
That may not change in 2017. They boast the 31st-ranked front seven by PFF's grades, but they do get the 2nd-easiest schedule in football. The Colts, who had a +19 point differential last season (tops in the division -- only the Titans were also above zero at just +3), can certainly take advantage in the AFC South and finish above .500 for the first time in two seasons. That's especially true if Donte Moncrief can stay healthy alongside the game-changing T.Y. Hilton.
