Fantasy Football: One Overvalued Player From Each Team
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Positional ADP: RB3 | Projected Finish: RB3
Yeah, I went there. Ezekiel Elliott absolutely crushed it in his rookie season. For a variety of reasons, I don't think he'll turn in a similar performance this year.
The biggest reason to fade Elliott at this price is the potential for suspension. At this point, it seems like it's a matter of when, not if, that happens. Without knowing how long his suspension could be, the risk of taking him this early in drafts is pretty substantial.
Apart from that, there are other reasons to be concerned. The Dallas Cowboys' offensive line was credited for playing a big role in Elliott's success, but that line lost two of its starters this offseason. Ron Leary left via free agency, and Doug Free retired. Maybe the line will still be great, but it may not be as great.
The final reason to fade Elliott has to do with regression. Since 2000, there have been 108 seasons in which a running back had 300 or more attempts (Elliott had 322 last year) in a campaign. Here's how many carries they had the following season, on average, with Year X referring to the season in which the back had at least 300 carries.
| Average Attempts in Year X | Average Attempts in Year X+1 | Difference |
|---|---|---|
| 332.7 | 260.6 | -72.1 |
Only half the time (exactly 54 instances) did the running back manage to stay within 48 attempts (three per game) of his previous year's total. History suggests Elliott is likely to see less volume this year, which obviously impacts his fantasy outlook, even if he should still be a very valuable asset.
Instead Try
LeSean McCoy and Melvin Gordon both carry top-10 running back projections and are available later in the first round. Both should be locked into large workloads, and neither face off the field concerns.
