Fantasy Football: One Overvalued Player From Each Team

Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints

Positional ADP: WR7 | Projected Finish: WR13

Michael Thomas took the world by storm as a rookie, and now Brandin Cooks is gone. Unfortunately, drafters jumped on the bandwagon and rode it right past the station.

Our own Brett Oswalt did the heavy lifting here, so make sure to check out his work. His key takeaway:

...there's decent volume, but Drew Brees' willingness to distribute to various weapons prevents his top wideout's numbers from getting anywhere near the market shares of today's other top-end receivers.

The last time a New Orleans Saints wide receiver got 20 percent of the team's targets was Marques Colston in 2010. In other words, even though Cooks is gone, it's unlikely that Thomas sees a big uptick in opportunity. Ted Ginn Jr. takes Cooks place, and while it's debatable how good he is, he did average 96 targets and 0.78 Reception NEP per target over the past two years. He'll get work.

Here's another thing to keep in mind. Even though Thomas' rookie season was good, it wasn't that great by Drew Brees standards. Since Brees arrived in New Orleans in 2006, there have been 35 instances of a receiver getting 48 or more targets (an average of three per game) in a season. Thomas' 2016 Reception NEP per target ranks 28th on that list. His Reception Success Rate (25th) isn't much better.

I'm not trying to take anything away from Thomas. I'm just saying that Brees really elevates the performance of his receivers, which is exactly what you'd expect of an all-time great passer. Compared to his teammates, Thomas' 0.73 Reception NEP per target number was worse than both Cooks (0.84) and Willie Snead (0.79). Snead, like Ginn, will get work.

Instead Try

Jordy Nelson is an easy pivot. His quarterback is also extremely good, and his role atop the depth chart is as secure as they come. He projects as our WR5 in 2017.