One Running Back to Target in Each Round of Your Fantasy Football Draft
Round 5: Mike Gillislee, New England Patriots
Average Draft Position: 5.06 (RB22)
You may be thinking Mike Gillislee loses some of his appeal in PPR leagues. Well, my friend, touchdowns are a heck of a drug.
Last season, LeGarrette Blount caught just 7 balls for 39 yards, and he still finished as the RB9 in PPR formats. Of course, there's no guarantee Gillislee comes in and vacuums up all of the work leftover by Blount's departure or that he scores a position-leading 18 touchdowns like Blount did in 2016, but there's so much upside for the "big back" in the New England Patriots' offense.
We don't know how everything will shake out between Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis and James White, but Bill Belichick was reportedly "infatuated" with Gillislee in 2016.
You know what? So were we.
That's because Gillislee was historically great last year -- like, the most efficient runner of the century, according to our numbers.
Among backs with at least 80 carries in 2016, he ranked first in both Rushing NEP per attempt and Rushing Success Rate, the latter of which is the percentage of a player's carries that positively impacted NEP.
| Name | Rushes | Rushing NEP | Rushing NEP/Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gillislee | 101 | 30.53 | 0.30 | 57.43% |
If you're new to numberFire, those clips won't mean much to you, so let me break it down.
In 2016, the league averages for Rushing NEP per carry and Success Rate were -0.02 (yes, negative) and 40.28%, respectively, so Gillislee destroyed those. It gets better -- Bilal Powell finished second in Success Rate with a mark of 49.61%, and LeSean McCoy was second in Rushing NEP per carry at 0.15, neither guy coming all that close to Gillislee's marks.
Gillislee was flat-out insane last year, and it sure seems like the Pats know how good he is, signing him to an offer sheet this offseason when running back didn't necessarily appear to be a huge need for the team (they'd already signed Burkhead at that point and could've re-signed Blount).
Lewis and White figure to see significant pass-game work like they have in the past, but Gillislee could turn into a smashing value at this price if he locks down New England's "big back" gig.
