One Running Back to Target in Each Round of Your Fantasy Football Draft
Round 6: Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints
Average Draft Position: 6.03 (RB26)
A year ago, Mark Ingram was being taken as the RB11, the second pick of the third round in PPR drafts. Now, he's coming off the board as a flex play in the sixth round.
Dude must've had a rough 2016 season.
Here's the thing about that -- Ingram was really great last year. It wasn't the smoothest journey, but he finished as the RB8 in PPR leagues. That came on the heels of RB12 (2015) and RB15 (2014) finishes in each of the previous two seasons.
It's almost like Ingram is really good.
Obviously, the issue here -- and why Ingram's ADP has fallen -- is the fact the New Orleans Saints brought in Adrian Peterson this offseason. But this is a 32-year-old AP, not an in-his-prime Peterson, and the guy just hasn't been anywhere near as good as Ingram lately, according to our metrics.
Here's how each running back has fared in Rushing NEP per carry over the last three years.
| Season | Mark Ingram | Adrian Peterson |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0.06 | -0.38 |
| 2015 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| 2014 | 0.04 | -0.21 |
While the sample sizes for Peterson's seasons aren't big in 2014 and 2016 (58 combined carries in those two years), Ingram has clearly been the better running back in recent seasons.
Look, Peterson is one of the best running backs in NFL history, and he's going to have a role with the Saints, possibly a very important goal-line job. Ingram can still be a solid producer, though, especially in PPR formats.
Our models project Ingram for 138 carries and 681 rushing yards on the ground plus 34 catches and 292 receiving yards through the air and 6.55 total touchdowns -- and that's with us projecting Peterson for 139 carries, a near even split between the two. Ingram's pass-catching ability gives him a nice floor, and if something happens to AP -- not a huge if -- Ingram could be a league-winning pick this season.
