Fantasy Football Week 1 Market Share Report: Ty Montgomery Is a Workhorse
Rushing Market Shares
1. Tarik Cohen Kills Jordan Howard's Outlook
Unless you're the 2016 Atlanta Falcons, it's hard for one offense to support two fantasy-viable running backs. It's safe to say that the Chicago Bears will not reach those levels of production. That spells doom for Jordan Howard now that Tarik Cohen is in the picture.
Howard's fantasy value was largely dependent on him keeping the role of being the bell cow in the Bears' offense. You knew they wouldn't score much with Mike Glennon at quarterback, so it was clear that Howard needed volume to thrive. Cohen cut into that heavily on Sunday.
The rushing numbers -- 13 attempts for Howard and 5 for Cohen -- would be concerning in a vacuum. But then you toss in that Cohen had 12 targets compared to 5 for Howard, and the sweat starts to build a bit more.
Howard did manage to out-snap Cohen, 38 to 28, but when you consider how productive Cohen was, that number's not likely to get better going forward. If that's the type of workload Howard will get in this offense, then his fantasy viability is going to be extremely limited.
This is pretty much the worst-case scenario. On bad offenses, we need clarity about who's going to get the ball each week. We don't have that for the Bears now, especially with how sickly Cohen performed. Even though you won't get a good return on investment for Howard in season-long leagues, it's still best to sell while you can.
With Cohen, the upside will be limited until he gets his snap rate up. But those targets are going to give him viability for fantasy, if nothing else, and he'll at least be a guy we should continue to monitor going forward.
2. Ty Montgomery Is a Workhorse
To be a workhorse running back in the NFL, you need three things: a monster snap rate, a majority of the rushing-game usage, and involvement in the passing game. Ty Montgomery checked all those boxes in Week 1.
Montgomery dominated the backfield for the Green Bay Packers, handling 19 of 21 running-back carries. It would have been even higher had Montgomery not left briefly due to a leg injury. He returned to finish the game, but that brief stoppage didn't limit his volume.
Montgomery missed just eight snaps for the day, playing 74 out of 82. Jordy Nelson was the only skill-position guy on the team to exceed that, and he bested Montgomery by just two snaps. Montgomery maxed out at 83.6% of the snaps last year, and he played at least half the snaps in just six games. This is not the same Montgomery we saw last year; he's leaps and bounds beyond that.
Toss in four targets for the former wide receiver in an offense that will score points, and he starts to look like a top-flight fantasy option. Montgomery's $6,500 on FanDuel entering a potential shootout with the Falcons, so he's going to be a guy you'll want to plug in. This all also makes Montgomery a buy-high candidate in season-long leagues.
3. The Seahawks Are Still a Wreck
Normally, when you remove one piece from a messy backfield, you can get a good amount of clarity as the team is forced to concentrate its touches a bit more.
The Seattle Seahawks' running backs may just be beyond hope.
Even with Thomas Rawls sitting due to an ankle injury, no running back commanded more than six carries in Week 1. Chris Carson led the way with exactly that number, Eddie Lacy had five, and C.J. Prosise had four. That's a whole lotta muck.
For Lacy, those five carries came on just seven snaps. If Rawls were healthy, would Lacy have even been active? Lacy's fantasy value has never been lower than it is now, and he's completely unplayable in both season-long and DFS.
Things are a bit brighter for Carson, though. Despite handling just six carries, he still managed to play more than half the snaps (53%), easily besting Prosise (33%) for tops on the team. This was in a game in which the Seahawks trailed for most of the second half, a game script that would normally lead to increased usage for Prosise. But Carson stayed on the field. That's significant.
If Rawls plays, all of the positivity for Carson gets put temporarily on hold. But if Rawls has to sit again in Week 2, Carson is absolutely worthy of a sniff. The Seahawks are at home against the San Francisco 49ers in a game in which they will be heavy favorites. Keep an eye on Rawls' projected availability throughout the week, but don't be shocked if Carson plays a major role in Week 2 if Rawls can't suit up.
4. Javorius Allen Surges Into the Picture
With Danny Woodhead exiting early Sunday due to a hamstring injury, it looked like Terrance West might be in line for an increased role. Instead, it was Javorius Allen who got the biggest bump.
Allen wound up outsnapping West, 33 to 27, while snagging 21 carries compared to 19 for West. This was in a game in which the Ravens led start to finish. If West can't lead the team in snaps then, in what scenario can he?
The team threw just 17 times on Sunday, so it's hard to tell which guy would be favored to see work in a negative game script. However, Allen was on the field for 11 passing plays, and West played just 6, according to Pro Football Focus. This would indicate that Allen has the edge in that department, as well.
With Woodhead's absence potentially being a lengthy one, it appears right now as if Allen holds a slight edge on West. His increased abilities to contribute in the passing game provide a safety net in case the Baltimore Ravens' offense struggles. Allen would potentially disappear if Woodhead were to return, but for right now, he seems to be the back to own on this team.
