Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 13

Play Nick Novak as a Heavy Favorite

Our own Jim Sannes wrote a very useful article on how kickers performed based on measures such as Vegas spreads, implied totals, and favorites versus underdogs. Based on his findings, we need to target kickers on heavily-favored teams, with implied team total as the tiebreaker.

The aforementioned Chargers are favored by 13.5 points. They also have the second-highest implied total of all teams at 28.00 points. Veteran kicker Nick Novak should benefit in this situation.

According to Sannes, kickers on teams favored by 10 points or more scored an average of 9.77 points per game between 2012 and 2014. And when kickers are on teams with an implied total of 27.00-29.75 points, they scored an average of 8.64 fantasy points.

It should be noted that Novak is dealing with an injury and is questionable. If he fails to play, his replacement will certainly be worth the start.

Novak is priced cheaply at $4,700, the 12th-most among kickers on FanDuel. If he's active, he is safe to use in all formats.

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Matt Blair is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Blair also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username grizzlyblair. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.