Finding Betting Value in the Odds for the 2018 NFL MVP Award

Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

MVP Odds: +1100 (4th)

In his second season with the Philadelphia Eagles, Carson Wentz broke out in a big way and was firmly in the MVP discussion prior to getting injured. Compiling an 11-2 record as a starter, Wentz finished the season tops among all quarterbacks in QBR at 74.4. He tossed an Eagles record 33 touchdown passes.

Wentz adjusted yards per attempt rose from 5.7 as a rookie to 8.3, with his yards per completion improving from 10.0 to 12.4. He also was able to throw the same number of touchdown passes after tearing his ACL (one) as Dak Prescott managed from Week 15 to Week 17.

Among the 29 quarterbacks with at least 300 drop backs, Wentz was third in Passing NEP per drop back at 0.25. Only Philip Rivers (0.26) and Tom Brady (0.28) had better marks. Compare and contrast this to Wentz's rookie performance, when his 641 drop backs (5th-most) amassed a mere 0.06 Passing NEP per drop back, which sat 22nd of 30 qualifiers.

The Eagles' offense may be even better in 2018, assuming Wentz is back to full health after his ACL tear. LeGarrette Blount and Torrey Smith are gone, but in their place is the returning Darren Sproles and former Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Mike Wallace. They also added tight end Dallas Goedert in the draft after losing Trey Burton in free agency.

If Jason Peters can return and improve the protection around Wentz (Wentz had only the 18th-highest protection rate among quarterbacks, per PlayerProfiler), then the Eagles should once again be in the Super Bowl conversation. That type of season would keep Wentz in the running for the top individual prize, too, and his odds of +1100, tied for the fourth-best, feel just about spot on.