Finding Betting Value in the Odds for the 2018 NFL MVP Award

Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

MVP Odds: +1100 (4th)

It may come as a surprise to some that Drew Brees has never won an MVP award in his storied NFL career. In the course of his 17 years in the league, he has won two Offensive Player of the Year crowns (2008 and 2011), but the most prestigious individual award has eluded him.

Brees was excellent for the New Orleans Saints in 2017, completing an NFL record 72.0% of his pass attempts. His 386 completions led the league. On a per-play basis, of the 20 quarterbacks with at least 500 drop backs, only Tom Brady and Philip Rivers had a better Passing NEP per drop back than Brees' 0.24.

However, whereas there have been seasons in which Brees was the sole reason to get excited about the Saints' offense, the 2017 season saw Brees become more of a high-level facilitator rather than a driver. He attempted 536 passes, his second-lowest in a season as a Saint. His 23 touchdown passes were his fewest in a single season in which he has started at least 15 games. The Saints had a pass-to-run ratio of 1.25, their third-lowest since the 2000 season.

All that happened because New Orleans became a really good, well-rounded team. The Saints leaned on their ground game and improving defense, and it's a formula that worked very well for them as they were a Minnesota Miracle away from playing for the NFC title.

If a glut of injuries or suspensions (like the one that befell Mark Ingram) should occur and Brees is given the opportunity to drop back 600-plus times, then he may well be able to put up video-game passing numbers once again. But, as we've pointed out, he never won the MVP even with his silly-good numbers in previous seasons, and the days of Sean Payton asking Brees to drop back 40 times in a game may be a thing of the past.

At +1100 odds, tied for the fourth-best, it feels like Brees is overvalued by oddsmakers, and he doesn't profile as a great bet at this line. His best chance to win the MVP may be if the Saints have a truly great year, and he gets the award as the quarterback on the best team. Outside of that, his counting stats -- specifically yards and touchdowns -- will likely fall short of the clips put up by the game's other elite passers.