10 Players You Should Be Avoiding in Fantasy Football Drafts
Marvin Jones, WR, Detroit Lions
Marvin Jones came through for fantasy owners last year, especially in the touchdown column. This season, we probably shouldn't expect another nine-score performance.
Based on how many touchdowns players have scored over the last seven years with a similar yardage total, Jones' 1,101 receiving yards in 2017 would've traditionally yielded 6 to 7 scores. Instead, he got nine. So there should be some negative regression coming with all things being equal.
But things won't be the same as last year, because Kenny Golladay -- I'm sorry, Babytron -- is healthy this season. And Golladay proved to be somewhat of an issue for Marvin Jones' output in 2017.
| Games | Targets/Game | Receptions/Game | Yards/Game | TD/Game | PPR PPG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| With Golladay | 11 | 5.27 | 3.09 | 61.27 | 0.54 | 12.46 |
| Without Golladay | 5 | 9.80 | 5.40 | 85.40 | 0.60 | 17.54 |
There's nothing wrong with 12.46 points per game -- those are low-end WR2 numbers -- but that's close to where Jones is being drafted here in 2018. And selecting him there makes the assumption that Golladay won't improve and see a higher target and touchdown share in the Detroit offense.
Jones posted some unsustainable deep ball numbers last year as well.
| Deep Ball Category | Rank |
|---|---|
| Percentage of Yards Coming From Deep Balls | 3rd |
| Percentage of Targets as Deep Balls | 10th |
| Deep Ball Catch Rate | 6th |
| Deep Ball TD | T-4th |
Of the 85 NFL wide receivers with 50 or more targets in 2017, Jones ranked 3rd in percentage of yards coming from 15-plus air yard throws, 6th in deep ball catch rate, 4th in deep ball touchdowns, and 10th in percentage of targets that travelled 15 or more yards through the air. The only area where he didn't set a career high was within percentage of targets that were deep balls, where he was only 0.44% off.
It's going to be tough to replicate what he did last year here in 2018.
Eric Ebron's departure will help cushion the blow for Jones a bit, as some of the tight end's volume may end up going to the wide receivers. That doesn't make Jones completely risk-free, though.
