5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 12

Indianapolis Colts' Rushing Offense

As a rule, we want to tie our running backs in fantasy football to efficient offenses. They move the ball more effectively, generate more touchdown drives, and are more likely to be in positive game script late in the game.

They don't come much more efficient than the Indianapolis Colts right now, and that bodes well for Marlon Mack against the Miami Dolphins.

The Colts have rattled off four straight wins, scoring at least 29 points in each. That includes a couple of games against solid defenses in the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars. Andrew Luck is just shredding everybody.

The turnaround for the Colts overlaps perfectly with when they started to get healthy again. The first game in the win streak was when T.Y. Hilton made his return from injury, allowing Luck to finally have some talent around him.

Here's a look at just how big of an impact this renewed health has had on Luck and the Colts' offense. They've basically been an entirely new team since Hilton's return.

In technical terms, Luck's stretch has been pornographic. Less formally, he has been the patron saint of slinging silliness.

For context, Brees leads the league in both Passing NEP per drop back and Success Rate this year. His marks are 0.48 and 60.9%, respectively. Luck is blasting both marks out of the water. It's not an overly robust sample, and three of the four games have been at home, but so is this one against the Dolphins.

If you believe the Dolphins -- with Ryan Tannehill likely back at quarterback -- can keep pace, then Luck and the passing offense look pretty snazzy. They've paid off in DFS recently even without the benefit of a neutral script, so Luck, Hilton, and Jack Doyle are at least in play. But Mack could flex some muscle after the Colts build a lead.

Running behind that retooled offensive line, Mack has had plenty of efficiency of his own this year. He's fourth in Rushing Success Rate and second in Rushing NEP per carry out of the 39 running backs with at least 80 carries. He's coupling that efficiency with respectable volume, too.

Since returning, Mack has had at least 12 carries in each game. He has had 16 or more 3 times, and he has rushed for more than 125 yards twice. Even though he does lose some work in the passing game to Nyheim Hines, Mack has multiple targets in each game, giving his floor a slight boost.

If you look at Mack's game logs, though, you'll see that he hasn't had this same effectiveness after the bye. In those 2 games, his 28 carries have resulted in just 90 yards, amounting to 3.21 yards per carry. That's a bit concerning given that it is our most recent sample on Mack.

A lot of that can likely be explained by the defenses Mack has faced. The Jaguars have allowed the third-lowest Rushing Success Rate to opposing backs this year, according to numberFire's Brandon Gdula. The Tennessee Titans are 20th in that metric but have allowed the 11th-lowest Rushing NEP per carry, meaning they effectively limit chunk plays.

The Dolphins have not been nearly as successful. They're 24th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, the second-softest rush defense Mack has faced this year. The only worse unit was the Raiders in Week 8, and Mack sliced and diced his way to 132 yards and 2 touchdowns on 25 carries against them.

At $7,000, Mack's in the same salary tier as some other interesting names for this week in Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon, Sony Michel, and Matt Breida. There are reasons to like all of those guys, but Mack is the only one who is a heavy home favorite. All of them have passing-game restrictions similar to Mack's. Toss in this matchup, and it seems like Mack does stand out as being a solid play for tournaments, especially when compared to others in his salary tier.