5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 12
New York Giants' Passing Offense
Normally, when divisional teams play each other for the second time in a season, you want to shy away. The games tend to be lower-scoring as the two teams have already studied up on the opposing squad and know their offensive tendencies.
With the Giants this week, that may not even matter. The Eagles' defense has gotten Thanos'd the past month and looks nothing like it did when they first met in October.
These two teams first squared off back in Week 6. In that one, Derek Barnett recorded three quarterback hits. Ronald Darby deflected four passes. Jalen Mills deflected two passes and tied for the team lead with 10 tackles. Jordan Hicks and Avonte Maddox started the game and played every single snap.
All of those dudes are now hurt.
Barnett and Darby are on injured reserve, Mills has missed the past two games, and Hicks and Maddox both got hurt in the blowout loss to the Saints and are uncertain to play this weekend. Safety Sidney Jones left early during the first game against the Giants, returned against the Saints, and promptly injured his hamstring again.
It does matter that the Eagles have seen and game-planned for the Giants once already this season. But with as many as six defensive starters from that game potentially out on Sunday, it's hard to expect them to shut down anybody at this point.
We've certainly seen the ill effects of the injuries of late, even beyond the flamethrower Drew Brees took to them in Week 11. Dak Prescott had 8.21 Passing NEP against them, second-most he has had in a game all year. Cam Newton threw for 269 yards and 2 touchdowns on 39 attempts. Even before all the injuries mounted, Kirk Cousins, Marcus Mariota, and Ryan Fitzpatrick all found success against this pass defense. Eli Manning may not have done so the first time around, but with all the injuries they've got now, it's easy to see a scenario in which the rematch goes down differently.
The issue with Manning isn't his floor. He has scored at least 14 FanDuel points in 8 of his past 9 games, and he has had 17 or more in 5 of those. The concern comes down to his ceiling.
For the full season, the most FanDuel points Manning has had in a game is 21.24 against the Carolina Panthers in Week 5. He has topped 20 FanDuel points in just one other game, and that's just not going to cut it, even at a price of $6,700.
But even though we haven't seen Manning top those totals doesn't mean he's incapable of doing so. He had 399 yards passing in one game and has topped 300 yards in 3 of his past 6 games. He also had three touchdowns two games ago. He just hasn't paired high yardage totals with many multi-touchdown games.
Based on what Manning has done thus far from a DFS perspective, we're likely better suited paying up for someone like Winston instead. Still, it's very possible that Manning could produce a ceiling fantasy game if the breaks happen to fall his way, and -- given this matchup -- that should be enough to get us to consider him at this low price point.
The other allure of Manning is that he helps you pay up at other slots on your roster. And you're going to want to do that with Odell Beckham here.
The most relevant sample on this Giants offense from a volume perspective will be the four games since Evan Engram returned from injury. Here's how the targets have been divvied up in that time.
| Past 4 Games | FanDuel Salary | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | Red-Zone Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | $9,000 | 21.5% | 8.0% | 13.3% |
| Odell Beckham | $8,500 | 28.5% | 52.0% | 33.3% |
| Sterling Shepard | $6,000 | 16.2% | 28.0% | 16.7% |
| Evan Engram | $5,800 | 15.4% | 8.0% | 13.3% |
Beckham had 11 targets in 3 of the games before getting only 4 last week while the Giants nursed a big lead. With how many of those targets are of the high-leverage variety, it seems pretty obvious that we'll want this guy on our teams.
The ceiling has been hinted at this year for Beckham, and it's possible we see its full extent on Sunday. He has had 109 or more yards in 5 games, and he has topped 130 yards 3 times. He also had a multi-touchdown game two weeks ago. If those two statistical categories mesh, Beckham has slate-busting upside, and the odds of that happening are much higher with the current state of the Eagles' defense.
As you can see on the table above, Saquon Barkley is also a viable stacking candidate with Manning. He gets some high-leverage targets, including a short receiving touchdown in Week 11. Using Barkley with Manning likely ensures you get access to each of the Giants' touchdowns, so if you think they have the ability to go off, it makes sense to pair the two together.
The appeal is certainly lower in Engram and Sterling Shepard. Engram, specifically, saw his snap rate fall to just 32.1% in Week 11, and his involvement has been minimal since returning. That's not going to cut it when he's $5,800.
Shepard can be in play if you assume the Eagles' defense concentrates all its assets on stopping Beckham. They held Michael Thomas to four targets last week, but it allowed Tre'Quan Smith to blow up. As such, you can build lineups with Shepard because he is cheap and has a path to a respectable output, but Shepard lineups should be in the minority compared to those with Beckham and Barkley.
