5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 12
Philadelphia Eagles' Rushing Offense
Even with Gurley, Elliott, and Kareem Hunt off the main slate, there are still plenty of safe, high-cost running backs on the board. More often than not, those are the guys we're going to want on our rosters.
In the value range, there are two names that seem to stick out: Gus Edwards and Josh Adams. Edwards got 17 carries last week, seemingly supplanting Alex Collins as the team's top back. With the Oakland Raiders in town this weekend, there's plenty working in Edwards' favor at $5,300.
But Edwards isn't going to get passing-down work, and that's a detriment to both his floor and ceiling, even on a half-PPR site like FanDuel. Adams' concerns there seem a bit more muted, and his matchup is just as tasty.
Let's start with why Adams is even on our radars in the first place. That story starts back in Week 10 after the Philadelphia Eagles' bye when Adams played a season-high 30.6% of the snaps, leapfrogging Corey Clement and trailing Wendell Smallwood by just two snaps. Clearly, Adams impressed in that action as Philly coach Doug Pederson said after the game that Adams would get more work going forward.
Pederson was true to his word in Week 11.
Adams easily led all Eagles in snaps in that one, playing 54.9% with Clement at 27.5% and Smallwood at 7.8%. Trimming this to a two-man committee would do quite a bit for Adams' fantasy stock.
Given the way that game went with the Eagles eventually losing by 41 points, it's easy to overlook Adams' work in that game. But he handled 7 of 10 running-back carries while getting 6 of 8 targets. Those six targets tied the most for an Eagles running back since Darren Sproles got seven in Week 1.
Six of Adams' carries and four of his targets came in the first three quarters, showing that this wasn't just some fluke due to the lopsided score. They were getting Adams work early on before things got out of hand. That bodes well in a much friendlier scenario in Week 12.
Instead of facing one of the league's best offenses on the road, the Eagles are at home to face the New York Giants. Philadelphia is favored by six, potentially allowing them to keep the ground attack in play deeper into the game. And that ground attack figures to be an efficient one.
First, there's Adams himself. He has balled out this year when given opportunities, as you can see when putting his numbers side-by-side with other guys rushing behind the same offensive line.
| Eagles in 2018 | Rushes | Yards Per Carry | Rushing NEP Per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wendell Smallwood | 63 | 4.08 | 0.02 | 44.4% |
| Corey Clement | 57 | 3.35 | -0.08 | 31.6% |
| Jay Ajayi | 45 | 4.09 | -0.08 | 46.7% |
| Josh Adams | 34 | 6.09 | 0.09 | 52.9% |
The sample's still small, but Adams has taken advantage of his chances thus far. That helps validate the Eagles' decision to expand his workload.
Second, we can look at the matchup with the Giants. For them defensively, it's a tale of two seasons.
To start the year off, they were excelling against the rush, one of the few bright spots on the team. But then they traded defensive tackle Damon Harrison prior to Week 8, and it really flipped that narrative in a hurry. Here's what running backs have done against them before and after the trade.
| RBs vs. Giants | Yards Per Carry | Success Rate | Rushing NEP Per Carry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Harrison Trade | 3.87 | 36.1% | -0.03 |
| Since Harrison Trade | 5.27 | 46.8% | 0.06 |
Trading Harrison was clearly the right move for the Giants given that they're not going to contend this year. But it definitely makes backs facing them more tasty for DFS.
It's also encouraging that it isn't just stone-cold studs who have popped against this defense since the trade. Sure, Adrian Peterson went off for 149 yards, but Matt Breida had 101 on just 17 carries, and Peyton Barber notched his second career 100-yard day last week on 18 carries.
That can allow us to feel a bit more comfortable with Adams given his lack of volume. As exciting as he has been, he is still yet to exceed nine carries in a game this year. Clearly, you don't need to be a workhorse to thrive against this defense, and the gameflow should permit Adams' workload to inflate.
Because we haven't seen Adams' expanded role in a non-extreme game script yet, he's not a player we should trust in cash games. That's likely best left to those aforementioned higher-priced options. But if you want to pay up for someone like Odell Beckham in tournaments, then it's justifiable to take the savings and plug in Adams at $5,700.
