5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 14
Cleveland Browns' Passing Offense
Context doesn't always have to refer to a team's health or personnel. It can also refer to things such as matchups and game environments.
For Baker Mayfield, those two things are wildly different this week than they were in Week 13.
In that one, the Browns were on the road to face the Houston Texans. Mayfield struggled pretty mightily, finishing with -5.08 Passing NEP, his second-worst game of the year by that metric. He did throw for 397 yards, but he finally looked like a rookie again there.
Instead of playing on the road against J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, the Browns are back at home this week to face a much softer opponent.
The Panthers enter Week 14 ranked 27th against the pass, according to numberFire's metrics. They haven't always faced big volume from opposing passers, but they have let some lower-end quarterbacks put up impressive numbers.
The big sore spot for the Panthers was back in Week 5. There, they were facing Eli Manning and a New York Giants offense that was in complete disarray. In that game, Manning turned his 36 attempts into 326 yards, his second-highest total of the year.
Outside of that game, the Panthers have also allowed 352 yards to Andy Dalton, 328 yards and 5 touchdowns on just 25 attempts to Roethlisberger, and 339 yards on 31 attempts to Russell Wilson. We don't talk about the Panthers as being a team with a leaky pass defense, but they have had exactly that for most of the year.
That sets up well for Mayfield, who has popped in similar spots this season.
Since the team canned offensive coordinator Todd Haley and head coach Hue Jackson, Mayfield has gone up against a pair of defenses ranked in the bottom half of the league against the pass. In those two games, Mayfield racked up 22.64 and 25.92 FanDuel points, respectively, and tossed 7 touchdowns on just 46 attempts.
Even when you look beyond that and include Mayfield's clunker last week, the dude has been balling out since the coaching changeover. The splits below look at Mayfield with Haley calling plays compared to Freddie Kitchens, and Mayfield has looked like a whole new player.
| Mayfield in 2018 | Yards Per Attempt | Passing NEP/P | Success Rate | TDs | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| With Todd Haley | 6.60 | -0.06 | 41.2% | 8 | 6 |
| With Freddie Kitchens | 8.92 | 0.32 | 58.7% | 10 | 4 |
If those were Mayfield's full-season marks in Passing NEP per drop back and Success Rate, he would rank fourth and first, respectively, in the entire league among qualified passers. He's absolutely capable of exploiting this matchup.
Getting behind Mayfield at $7,500 shouldn't be too difficult in this matchup. Finding a palatable pass-catcher to pair with him, though, is a bit more difficult.
With Kitchens as the offensive coordinator, the target tree has spread its branches far and wide. Clearly, that has been beneficial for Mayfield, but it creates a headache for us when we're trying to stack. Here's how those targets have been distributed over the past four games.
| Under Freddie Kitchens | FanDuel Price | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | Red-Zone Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | $7,700 | 7.8% | 0.0% | 28.6% |
| Jarvis Landry | $5,800 | 20.2% | 28.1% | 7.1% |
| Antonio Callaway | $5,400 | 14.0% | 18.8% | 14.3% |
| David Njoku | $5,300 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 7.1% |
| Rashard Higgins | $5,000 | 9.3% | 21.9% | 7.1% |
Nobody has more than 20.2% of the team's targets in this time. That could lead you to just abandoning ship and using Mayfield by himself. That said, it's not all doom and gloom here.
One way you could attack this is to pair Mayfield up with Nick Chubb. As you see above, Chubb has had a decent role in the red zone, and he has had at least 3 targets and 30 receiving yards in 3 straight games. Chubb also has all eight of the team's rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line since the changeover, meaning using the two together would likely get you exposure to every touchdown the Browns score. With Chubb at $7,700, that may be the best way to attack this team.
If you want to go with a more traditional stack, Jarvis Landry is still clearly in play here. Despite the disappointing season -- especially since the coaching changes -- Landry still leads the team in deep targets over the past four games by a decent clip. He had five such targets last week alone, and it helped him top 100 receiving yards for the first time since Week 3. If you assume that the Panthers can keep this game close and force the Browns to keep throwing, Landry's not a bad option at $5,800.
As for David Njoku and Antonio Callaway, you can make a case for them, even if their target shares are a bit thinner than Landry's. Njoku brings some juice to a trash fire of a position, and Callaway has finally started to accidentally catch balls that hit him in the hands. Nobody here is a good cash-game option, and Landry's the best for tournaments, but we can certainly consider Njoku and Callaway if filling out multiple entries.
