5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 14

Green Bay Packers' Rushing Offense

Last week was not pretty for Aaron Jones and the Green Bay Packers. Not only did they lose at home to the Arizona Cardinals, but head coach Mike McCarthy got the boot as a result.

Now, they're back at home for their first game under interim head coach Joe Philbin. Can we actually justify going back to Jones after such a huge letdown?

There are a couple of things that can still give us pause here, pushing Jones out of consideration for cash games. First, we have no idea how Philbin is going to use Jones. Second, the right side of the offensive line missed practice on both Wednesday and Thursday and seems likely to sit. Additionally, the Atlanta Falcons just got linebacker Deion Jones back, a big boost for their rush defense, which ranks 31st on the full season.

So, why on Earth would we be talking about Aaron Jones here?

Starting with the offensive line, it's not the first time the team has been without Byron Bell and Bryan Bulaga. Bulaga has missed 155 snaps this year, according to The Quant Edge's injury tool, and the team's yards per carry has gone up to 5.22 from 4.90 with him off the field. Bell didn't become a starter until Week 4, and the team could easily just insert Justin McCray back into that slot. It looks bad, but they can still succeed without those two, especially with their key cog, left tackle David Bakhtiari, getting in a full practice on Wednesday.

Then there's the issue of the matchup. Deion Jones is a definitive upgrade, but it likely shouldn't be enough to scare us off.

Jones made his return last week against the Baltimore Ravens. In that game, the Ravens' running backs had a 46.9% Success Rate, well above the league average of 41.5%. Running backs do benefit from playing alongside a rushing quarterback, so we have to take that number with a grain of salt. But Aaron Jones hasn't needed that bump to beast out this year.

Even with last week's letdown, Jones still leads the league in Rushing Success Rate among running backs with at least 80 carries, sitting up at 53.6%. Phillip Lindsay and Todd Gurley are the only other two players to top 49.0%.

Additionally, Jones' passing-game usage was still solid against the Cardinals. He had four targets there, giving him at least that many in five straight games. Since his snap rate spiked in Week 10, Jones has 15.4% of the team's total targets, which is tremendous as he gets set to face a team that has -- once again -- allowed more running-back receptions than any other team in football.

When you're playing tournaments in DFS, you can allow yourself to make assumptions. If you assume that the Tennessee Titans win, then it's more likely that Derrick Henry will have a big game. If you assumed last year that Jimmy Garoppolo would boost the San Francisco 49ers' offense, it would have allowed you to buy into Marquise Goodwin for his surge. It's not smart to make these assumptions in cash games, but for tournaments, it can give you a big leg up.

With Jones, there are three assumptions we can make. First, we can assume that he goes back into a split backfield with Jamaal Williams. Given Jones' efficiency, that seems unlikely, but it's very much possible.

Second, we can assume that Jones slides back into the role he had three games prior to McCarthy's firing. He averaged 24.1 FanDuel points per game in that stretch and never finished with fewer than 16.8. If Jones goes back to that role, he's pretty likely to crush against this Atlanta defense.

The third assumption is that Jones' role actually goes up. After all, we've still yet to see him get more than 17 carries or 6 targets in any game this year, so there is room for upward mobility here. If that happens, Jones would be worth far more than his $7,500 salary on FanDuel.

This "assumption" game has already paid off this year if you assumed the Browns would improve without Haley calling plays. Now that another coach has gotten the pink slip, it may be time for the Packers to do the same, and Jones could be the one to reap all the benefits.

It's important to recognize, though, that Jones' return to his previous role is not guaranteed, forcing us to put a cap on our exposure to him if we're filling out a bunch of tournament lineups. The odds this assumption plays out, though, are higher, knowing that Aaron Rodgers has said multiple times that Jones deserves more opportunities. The Packers are four-point home favorites in a game with a total of 50, they're facing a rush defense that is improved but not likely one we need to avoid, and Jones has proven all year that he can come through when he gets volume. It may be a risk, but the upsides here seem to be worth it.