5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 16
Dallas Cowboys' Rushing Offense
Things didn't go as swimmingly for the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15. They were on the butt end of Mack's dominance, and the offense got embarrassed at Lucas Oil Field.
This came just a week after the Cowboys racked up 576 total yards and scored 32 points against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Colts' defense has been solid, but it's not necessarily an upper-echelon unit. So, why the wildly different results?
It seems as if a lot of it may come down to the venues in which the two games were played.
In seven home games this year, the Cowboys have averaged 24.7 points per game; on the road, that number falls a full 10 points to 14.7 per game. Those numbers would likely slide closer together if the sample were larger than seven games on each side, but this is clearly something we need to account for.
The player with the biggest performance split seems to be Dak Prescott. The table below looks at what Prescott has done this year based on where the game has been played. Because Amari Cooper's arrival clearly changed the dynamic of the offense, Prescott's home/road splits since Cooper's arrival are also included. "Passing NEP/P" is short for Passing NEP per drop back, which tracks the expected points added per drop back while deducting for expected points lost due to sacks, incompletions, and interceptions.
| Prescott in 2018 | TDs | INTs | Passing NEP/P | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Home Overall | 13 | 3 | 0.17 | 48.8% |
| At Home With Cooper | 8 | 3 | 0.16 | 50.9% |
| On Road Overall | 4 | 5 | -0.07 | 41.9% |
| On Road With Cooper | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 46.6% |
When you combine the home and road numbers, it does seem like Cooper overall has made the offense better. But the more dramatic split seems to be whether they were in Dallas or playing elsewhere.
This puts Prescott and Cooper back on the map in daily fantasy at what should be much lower ownership than last week. The opposing Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank 28th against the pass, so there's a lot to like in those two.
But Prescott being able to move the ball better also impacts Ezekiel Elliott. It helps the team get into positive game script more often, and it helps generate more scoring drives. On top of that, Elliott's matchup is just as juicy as Prescott's.
For the full season, the Bucs are 27th against the rush, almost as poor as they are against the pass. But -- similar to what we discussed with the Giants -- full-season metrics don't account for their current personnel.
The Bucs actually started the year off pretty well from a yards-per-carry perspective. But then linebacker Kwon Alexander tore his ACL in Week 7, and the rush defense has been a wreck ever since.
| RBs vs. Bucs | Yards Per Carry | Rushing NEP Per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1 to 7 | 3.56 | -0.10 | 42.6% |
| Weeks 8 to 15 | 5.36 | 0.15 | 47.8% |
In this stretch, they've allowed all of Joe Mixon, Saquon Barkley, Matt Breida, Christian McCaffrey, and Gus Edwards to rush for at least 100 yards against them. Elliott's massive workload recently should allow him to join that list.
Ever since Cooper came to town, the Cowboys' offense has revolved almost exclusively around him and Elliott. In addition to averaging 22.0 carries per game in this time, Elliott has gotten 21.7% of the team's targets. He has had at least five targets in every game in this span, including a whopping 13 two weeks ago against the Eagles. It's arguably the best volume of any running back in the league right now.
The only minor problem Elliott has had recently is finding the end zone. He has been held out of the paint in now two straight games, preventing him from just blowing the lid off of slates. Should that bother us here?
The answer -- not shockingly -- is a resounding "no." Even with no touchdowns the past two weeks, Elliott has scored 25.2 and 14.3 FanDuel points, respectively. The passing-down work is making his floor unreal.
We also shouldn't expect that touchdown-less drought to continue. Since Cooper's arrival, Elliott has 30.0% of the team's targets inside the red zone, more than anybody else on the team. The Cowboys have the fifth-highest implied team total on the main slate, and being back at home should help them come through on those lofty expectations.
Throughout the week, it will be worth monitoring the health of guard Zack Martin. Martin missed Week 15 due to a knee injury but got in a limited practice on Thursday. If Martin were to sit again, it would likely constitute a downgrade for Elliott.
But even with Martin out in Week 15, Elliott managed to average 4.71 yards per carry with a 58.8% Success Rate. He can still be efficient even if Martin isn't on the field. As such, Elliott is currently a fine play for both cash games and tournaments, and a return for Martin would crank that appeal up even a bit more.
