5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 16

New York Jets' Passing Offense

If you want to be able to spend up for guys like Zeke, you've gotta save salary elsewhere. The New York Jets may just be your saving grace.

The Jets may feel like a weird selection at first glance. After all, they're 30th in both schedule-adjusted overall offense and passing offense. They've been hot garbage, and as a result, they've got nothing on the line in Week 16. They aren't going to check all the boxes we were talking about before.

However, because the Jets have been so bad this year, they've been out of the playoff hunt for a while. And yet they may be playing their best football as we enter the stretch run.

Over the past two weeks -- the two games since Sam Darnold returned from a foot injury -- the Jets have put together a pair of respectable performances. They snagged a late win against the Buffalo Bills and hung tight all night Saturday with the Houston Texans.

In those two games, Darnold still made some mistakes. Based on what Darnold did in college, those are likely going to stick around. But the overall body of work was pretty solid.

If that Passing NEP per drop back were Darnold's full-season mark, it would rank ninth in the league, right between Ben Roethlisberger and Andrew Luck. It's a small sample, but it's at least a glimmer of hope.

What helps validate Darnold's marks here is the opponents he has faced. The Bills' offense is treacherous, but their pass defense ranks seventh by numberFire's metrics. That game being in Buffalo makes it more impressive, as well.

The Texans haven't been as solid as the Bills this year, sitting down in 21st in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. But Darnold took care of business there, scoring a season-high 21.62 FanDuel points, and he gets an even better matchup in Week 16.

Darnold and the Jets are welcoming the Green Bay Packers into town. The Packers -- like the Jets -- have nothing to play for, which may have a negative effect on their pass defense. Even before factoring that in, though, this would be a plus spot for Darnold.

The Packers rank 26th against the pass for the full season. We just haven't noticed because they've faced six quarterbacks ranked 25th or worse in Passing NEP per drop back out of 41 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs (including 3 ranked 36th or worse). Once you account for their schedule, the Packers haven't been a defense to fear.

Darnold has been on the opposite end of the schedule spectrum. Of his 11 starts, 6 have come against teams ranked 9th or better against the pass, based on numberFire's metrics. That's tough for anybody, much less for a historically young quarterback. Sunday will be a reprieve from this stretch of terror.

When Darnold has gotten a chance against slightly lesser foes, he has shown competency, averaging 7.66 yards per attempt. That goes up to 8.19 with 7.88 adjusted yards per attempt if you exclude a game in Miami when center Spencer Long had issues snapping, which seemingly derailed the entire offense.

Darnold's rookie season has not been good overall. That matters, and it means we have to be skeptical of him even as he enters what seems to be a favorable matchup.

But Darnold has faced a tough schedule, shown big signs of improvement recently, and will run you a salary of just $6,700 on FanDuel. As long as you're willing to accept the risk, it seems like Darnold should be on your radar for daily fantasy on Sunday.

If Darnold worries you, but you still want to target the matchup, the clear outlet for doing so is Robby Anderson. He seems to be one of the catalysts for Darnold's surge.

In Darnold's two games back, he has peppered Anderson with 30.5% of the team's targets, including 8 of 12 deep targets (defined as being at least 16 yards beyond the line of scrimmage). Anderson has converted on that volume, going for at least 76 yards and a touchdown both times.

The connection seems to have started budding a bit before this, as well. Anderson has played at least 70% of the team's snaps in each of his past 7 games (missing 2 in that stretch due to injury), and 5 of those games came with Darnold starting. Anderson has at least 5 targets in each of those games, totaling a 23.4% target share with 46.0% of the deep looks. Anderson had double-digit looks in two of those games, and they happen to be the two that Quincy Enunwa missed. We're going to get that scenario again on Sunday.

Anderson figures to garner attention this week given his performances the past two games. But with his market shares and Darnold's performance on the rise, it seems fair to say that the increased popularity is justified.

Anderson's salary is just $5,900, which doesn't seem to represent how saucy his role is right now, especially with Enunwa out. If you're rolling out Darnold, it makes abundant sense to pair him with his field-stretching stud.

If you want to deviate from the crowd, there aren't many great options for doing so. With Enunwa out of the fold, the only other wide receiver is Jermaine Kearse, who averages a paltry 4.39 yards per target.

Instead, you could consider pairing Darnold with Elijah McGuire.

McGuire's another Jet who has had a role change recently, playing at least 74% of the snaps in back-to-back games with Isaiah Crowell injured. McGuire has averaged 17.5 carries and 4.0 targets in those two games and will also be in a pretty fun matchup against the Packers. Using the two together could get you access to each touchdown the Jets score, and with McGuire's salary still not reflecting his role at $5,700, there's plenty of reason to stack these two up.