Blind Résumés: Using Math to Compare Fantasy Football Quarterbacks
Cracking the Late-Round Konami Code
| Player | Drop Backs | Pass NEP | NEP/ Drop Back | Rush NEP | NEP/Rush |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB A | 516 | 37.30 | 0.07 | 46.25 | 0.47 |
| QB B | 547 | 28.70 | 0.05 | 23.05 | 0.37 |
Here are two quarterbacks who definitely fit into the "Konami Code" category, as they both produce very good numbers on the ground. They ran the ball a combined 161 times last season, and earned very strong NEP numbers in the process.
Quarterback A is more productive on a per-pass and per-rush basis, but not by much. Neither is a much better passer than Griffin or Palmer, and both fall short of Dalton and Fitzpatrick.
So surely these are two more late-round rushing quarterbacks looking to provide better fantasy football value than real life football value, right? If that's what you were thinking, you'd be half right.
Quarterback B is Alex Smith, the Chiefs' consistent if uninspiring signal-caller who was let loose as a runner in 2013 and it helped bolster his lackluster passing numbers and provide fantasy relevance.
But quarterback A is Cam Newton, who is being taken in the seventh round of standard mocks. He ran the ball 38 more times than Smith, and had more overall production as a runner, but his ability as a passer didn't stand out at all from his undrafted counterpart.
Newton has been incredibly productive throughout his career, and part of his poor NEP numbers can be blamed on his lack of weapons rather than deficiencies in his game. But the fact that a player who is on the same tier as Newton in our data is going undrafted should spark interest in those looking for a late-round bargain at quarterback, or who plan to stream at the position this season.
Again, like many of these examples, this data shouldn't drive you away from selecting Newton. He is the Carolina offense, and will produce as such. Instead, this should be a wake-up call to those who are seeking late-round quarterback value and didn't realize just how efficient Alex Smith was in both real football and fantasy football last season.
