Blind Résumés: Using Math to Compare Fantasy Football Quarterbacks
Does Running Make the Difference?
| Player | Drop Backs | Pass NEP | NEP/ Drop Back | Success Rate | Rushes | Rush NEP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB A | 613 | 25.80 | 0.04 | 47.80% | 7 | -3.92 |
| QB B | 493 | 20.86 | 0.04 | 46.25% | 83 | 7.62 |
You don't need to think very hard to figure out that Quarterback B in this example is clearly a better athlete than Quarterback A, and as a result, is more likely to benefit from the Konami Code of fantasy football quarterbacks.
But both signal-callers had very similar seasons under center, so you'd assume that they'd be in the same ballpark in terms of ADP, right? After all, Quarterback B's rushing didn't really help his team all that much overall when compared to the numbers posted by Fitzpatrick and Dalton above on half the attempts.
Quarterback A is Carson Palmer, which means there is a huge gap in ADP between him and Robert Griffin III, Quarterback B. According to Fantasy Football Calculator's data, there's actually a full six rounds between the two players, and unlike the Foles and Rodgers comparison, it's the younger, more unproven player who gets the edge.
That's because most assume Griffin will return to his 2012 form in 2014, and that his rushing volume will increase as he gets further removed from his knee injury of two years ago. Palmer, on the other hand, is what he is: a middling veteran quarterback who is a dependable but boring late-round option.
Griffin's impressive rookie season provides hope that he can be a top-tier fantasy quarterback, and there's enough uncertainty surrounding him to dismiss his similarities to Palmer in hopes of a better future. It's still worth noting that Griffin was unimpressive for nearly a full season in 2013, and that his current value is dictated on that being mostly a fluke.
