6 Bold Predictions About the 2014 Fantasy Football Season

6. Fred Jackson Will Outscore Cordarrelle Patterson

By Leo Howell

There is plenty of hype surrounding Cordarrelle Patterson (like you saw in the previous slide), who's currently being drafted at the end of the fourth round in mock drafts on FantasyFootballCalculator.com. But the love has gone too far. He's going to be outscored this year by a boring, old running back from Buffalo, who will finish in the top-15 at his position.

Fred Jackson is going in the middle of Round 8, and represents an infinitely better value than Patterson. The Bills were one of the five most run-heavy teams in the NFL last year, and Fred Jackson was one of the five best backs with 200 or more carries in the league in 2014. He returns with a lighter workload than most 30-something running backs to a team with an awful quarterback and a boom-or-bust "starting" running back in C.J. Spiller.

So why is he being taken four rounds after a wide receiver with 469 total yards who gained fantasy relevance by rushing for three scores on 12 carries? Nothing about Patterson's 2013 fantasy profile is repeatable, as rushing for multiple scores on limited carries isn't sustainable, especially when the secret is out and teams have tape to watch and prepare for Patterson's antics.

Patterson will be more involved in the Minnesota offense, but his 10.4 yards per catch and woeful Net Expected Points metrics don't paint a picture of a breakout star. The athletic profile is there, but is the football ability, and the offense to sustain another target with Kyle Rudolph, Greg Jennings and Adrian Peterson already taking most of the relevant touches? It seems highly unlikely, especially when compared to a veteran in a great situation like Jackson.