The Winners and Losers of Round 1 of the NFL Draft

Losers: Colts Ignore Defense, Add Phillip Dorsett at 29th

In the draft this year, we saw a lot of patterns emerge. One of them was a heavy emphasis on wide receivers and physical defensive backs.

There were five cornerbacks or safeties selected on Day 1 this year, and six wide receivers to match up with them. This is highly indicative of the trend of the NFL towards a greater and greater volume in the passing game, and it's no surprise to see this happen on the whole. Yet, one team that no one expected to select a receiver did so on Thursday. By drafting University of Miami wideout Phillip Dorsett, Indianapolis not only crammed a stacked depth chart even fuller, but they seemed to double a skill set they already had. With T.Y. Hilton occupying the small speed slot role for the Colts, can Dorsett make a real impact?

Our own Barry Cohen expounds on what this means for Andrew Luck and his receiving corps, writing,

"Defenses will have fits trying to keep up with Dorsett and T.Y. Hilton on the field at the same time. Hilton, at 5’9” and 178 pounds is proof that Dorsett is not too small for the NFL. With Andre Johnson, Donte Moncrief, and Duron Carter also in town, Dorsett will have to earn his playing time. The good news is that he should get an opportunity for looks outside and in the slot, but the question is, "How many?" There are few situations better for a rookie wide receiver than to have Luck as a quarterback. According to our Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, Luck ranked seventh last season with a Passing NEP of 110.33. NEP accounts for on-field variables such as down and distance to provide context on each play and rewards players for performing above or below expectation level in terms of increasing or decreasing a team’s scoring potential."

Barry is correct, that Wayne's departure does leave an unsettled vacuum, one that we'd previously assumed would be filled by Andre Johnson. If Dorsett does enough to earn his keep, we could see him take over the slot role (the Y receiver), while Hilton slots outside full time, and Johnson, Moncrief, and Carter vie for the other outside spot. Still with the talent the Colts have at receiver already (not to mention their great pass-catchers at tight end) and their holes on defense -- they ranked just 14th in Adjusted Defensive NEP and 18th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP -- this first-round selection would have been much better spent shoring up the defensive line or linebacking unit. Dorsett will be a good player, this is just a bad fit.