5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 16

Chicago Bears Passing Offense

Why not overload on a game with a mediocre over/under and two teams that likely aren't headed to the playoffs? What could go wrong?

Truthfully, both defenses in this contest could use some upgrades, so I wouldn't be shocked if this game were to hit the over. As long as Alshon Jeffery's hamstring allows him to go, the Bears could be a major part of that.

Tampa Bay has had the benefit of facing some sub-par quarterbacks of late, masking the fact that they rank 28th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. Five different quarterbacks have racked up at least 300 yards passing against them, and an additional five (not including the four that hit 300 yards) have tossed at least a pair of touchdowns. That, friends, is what you call a solid floor.

Let's use their past four games as an example. The quarterbacks they have faced are Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Ryan, Brees, and Case Keenum. Models of efficiency, yes? Well, those four guys have averaged 0.31 Passing NEP per drop back, and that includes a negative showing out of Ryan in his turn at the wheel. Brees' 18.65 Passing NEP even came in Tampa Bay. Again, this is propping Cutler's floor up nicely.

The other aspect of this is that Cutler will have two things he hasn't had in his five-game stretch of bad fantasy outings -- a great matchup and probable volume.

Over that five-game span, Cutler faced four top-15 defenses and attempted more than 32 passes only once. This is one of the worst pass defenses in the league, so there are no worries about matchup.

With the volume, the Bucs can go down as a "funnel defense." They are more than competent against the rush (eighth, according to our metrics), and they struggle mightily against the pass. That could force the Bears out of their run-first tendencies they have exhibited of late, bringing additional volume to Cutler's game. Adding that the Bears are underdogs only helps the cause.

In using Cutler, you're not going to have the same ceiling as you would have with a Bortles or a Brees this week. However, price helps compensate for that. He's $6,900 on FanDuel and $5,200 on DraftKings for a reason. The flexibility he gives you elsewhere can allow you to get exposure to those other high-scoring games. Even with price, I don't like Cutler as much as I do Brees or Bortles, but I do think he at least warrants exposure in a tournament.

Again, all of this rests on the health of Jeffery. If he looks like he's going to be ready to go on Sunday, stacking him with Cutler could make sense. If not, then it's best to stay away. Just be sure the monitor the situation as it progresses as the matchup here could end up being solid.