Fantasy Football: The Downside for Each Top-20 Pick

Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons

Downside: Offensive Regression

Any fantasy football analysis on the Falcons this offseason included the word regression, and for good reason: there's very little chance we see Atlanta's offense click the way it did a season ago, when they scored a touchdown on 35.2% of their drives. That's the fourth-best rate since the NFL's passing boom in 2011, and of the three teams that ranked ahead of them, each dropped below the 30% mark the following year.

And, to a degree, that change in efficiency should impact Julio Jones this year, at least a tad. He only scored six touchdowns during Atlanta's monstrous year, but he did so at a higher touchdowns per target rate than we've seen over the last three years. And Jones finished with a career high 11.88 air yards per catch thanks to quarterback Matt Ryan's MVP play -- that should't be expected as we roll into 2017, which should result in a worse yards per reception total.

But don't worry. Jones is still a high-floor, high-upside choice in the early part of your draft.