5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 6
Washington's Passing Offense
Finishing up our theme, Washington is favored by 10 against the San Francisco 49ers, a game script that sets up well for the ground game. But this is another spot where the passing offense should get us the most giddy.
A big part of that reasoning is that Washington is just not as good on the ground. They're 22nd there when adjusted for schedule, and lead back Rob Kelley is "a long shot" to play this week. That would seem to indicate decent volume for Kirk Cousins.
Thankfully, you can attack the opposing 49ers pretty much any way you want. They're 26th against the pass and 24th against the rush, so this defense is just flat bad. If Kelley sits, you could potentially take a swipe at Samaje Perine or Chris Thompson, but Cousins and his playmates seem to be the more desired outlet.
The 49ers started the year off well from a raw stats perspective, holding both Cam Newton and Russell Wilson below 200 yards passing. But Newton didn't find his stride until Week 4, and Wilson's offensive line was still in disarray after losing left tackle George Fant for the year during the preseason. On top of that, neither guy had poor advanced analytics. It just didn't show up in the traditional numbers. Things got worse from there.
Week 3 was their big shootout with Jared Goff, who torched them for 292 yards and 3 touchdowns on just 28 attempts. They've allowed more than 300 yards in each game since -- to juggernauts Carson Palmer and Jacoby Brissett, no less -- to show why they rank so poorly overall. The recent data tells us we can exploit this defense, especially when they're on the road facing a team coming off a bye.
Perhaps, though, that's not your biggest issue with targeting this offense. Instead, you could still be concerned about their slow start. While that's understandable, it seems like Washington is over those bumps.
Here's how Cousins performed through the eyes of NEP the first two weeks compared to what he did in the two games leading into the bye. He was an entirely different player.
| Cousins in 2017 | Drop Backs | Passing NEP | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1 and 2 | 73 | -2.21 | 41.10% |
| Weeks 3 and 4 | 55 | 33.50 | 54.55% |
Sure, one of those games was in a cake matchup with the Oakland Raiders, but the other was on the road against the Chiefs. Cousins had 5.34 Passing NEP there on just 24 drop backs, so that game helped validate the previous week's success. On top of that, the 49ers are nearly as saucy of a matchup as the Raiders, so there's not much to fret about here.
Cousins' price is fully reasonable at $7,800, meaning you'll be able to afford some high-cost guys elsewhere. He topped 20 points on FanDuel in each of those two games leading into the bye, so you probably don't need to be persuaded to use him. His pass catchers, though, are a bit of a tougher sell.
Over the past three games, nobody in this offense has more than seven targets. The only guy to get to those seven targets was Thompson, who followed that up with a two-target day in Week 4. Predictability is not a plus.
Most of those games, though, were played without a healthy Jordan Reed. Interestingly enough, Reed was not on the team's injury report for Wednesday's practice, meaning that should be less of an issue now. He had eight targets when healthy in Week 1 before being limited or out each of the next three games.
Reed presents you with a tough choice. He's $6,500, so you're not getting a major discount. However, we know he has massive upside, he fits what we want at tight end as playing on a team with a large implied team total, and he shouldn't carry heavy ownership. For tournament rosters, now may be the time to buy Reed with health finally in his favor.
Head coach Jay Gruden did mention getting more targets for Jamison Crowder, so you could give him a sniff at just $5,400. But outside of Reed, Terrelle Pryor seems to be the best investment.
Pryor is the only player on the team this year to hit double-digit targets, doing so back in Week 1. He also leads the team with 6 of their 20 targets at least 16 yards downfield. If one of the wide receivers is going to blow up, Pryor's the most likely candidate, making him worth a sniff at $6,800.
